Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 18.438971 21.350549 24.504432 28.166068 32.291293 36.785904 42.044201
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 14.159080 18.260224 23.114327 29.242126 36.726255 45.521818 56.588697
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 10.879673 15.439135 21.270487 29.177228 39.505886 52.416349 69.632131
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 9.181514 14.142982 20.918482 30.665944 44.114279 61.771508 86.414956
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 7.668095 12.738527 20.088523 31.237321 47.375633 69.485849 101.568789
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.396584 11.409198 19.090179 31.319595 49.805394 76.108847 115.605116
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.405125 10.309023 18.222653 31.396090 52.105413 82.588196 129.768882
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.017541 10.123487 18.725393 33.577127 57.678964 94.132677 151.931816
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.545003 9.696685 18.750865 34.948528 62.051007 104.119283 172.359853
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.124998 9.286451 18.731515 36.203900 66.286275 114.113690 193.340791
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.587841 8.550480 18.025010 36.172189 68.347550 120.769571 209.472329
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.024641 7.653934 16.891751 35.231685 68.738483 124.698720 221.432696
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.533871 6.831033 15.811480 34.312709 69.165160 128.850965 234.264924
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.230527 6.370638 15.391339 34.599616 71.776380 136.857569 253.970605
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.907324 5.794065 14.644519 34.152595 72.982693 142.511425 270.041268
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.781768 5.683886 14.882485 35.709781 78.070990 155.245735 298.874044
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.602722 5.394226 14.674808 36.304030 81.323208 164.860092 322.736458
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.413508 5.033446 14.248543 36.375689 83.532372 172.685459 343.817404
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.249332 4.705363 13.849513 36.454287 85.742000 180.611187 365.443496
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.224769 4.793908 14.488912 38.930980 93.047991 198.467984 405.897002
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.155183 4.726102 14.721326 40.487531 98.530061 213.126410 441.116912
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.084642 4.639525 14.892352 41.912137 103.822800 227.677108 476.761164
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.962612 4.348121 14.473693 41.875943 105.952864 236.165324 501.407820